Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics by Joseph J. George

By Joseph J. George

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30 is the mean surface-pressure map for the same five situations at the same time as Fig. 29 (24 hr before cyclogenesis). Note the flat area over the Adriatic Sea, which gives a good idea of the location of the new storm. The individual maps show this feature better than does this composite. , 24 hr later than both Figs. 30. Although all of the illustrations appearing in this section are related to cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean area, the same general principles apply to the rest of the eastern Atlantic, Europe, the eastern Pacific, and the western United States.

It is followed in about two-thirds of the cases by CYCLOGENESIS: EAST COAST O F ASIA 59 cyclogenesis in the western part of the critical area. In the other third, bad weather occurs with the cold front passage. The bad weather is normally restricted to a band along the cold front and is not nearly so widespread or persistent as in Case 1. An example may be found on October 21-25, 1931. 3. With no pre-existing low or cold front. This type is marked by the formation of a wave-type cyclone west of the bubble high.

This direction is then corrected in accordance with the relationship expressed in Fig. 13. There are occasional large departures from forecast values of this element. When the amplitude of the isotherms is less than 10┬░ of latitude through the center of cold injection, the new cyclone will usually curve to a course of west to east within 24 hr, even if its initial course is nearly northerly. 32 3 . THE PREDICTION OF CYCLOGENESIS FIG. 11. The second stage of a multiple correlation technique for forecasting the maximum intensity of new cyclones.

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