Trend Trading Articles

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4 Stocks & Commodities V. 5:2 (64-66): Trend of the trend by Gregory L. Morris Figure 3: Figure 4: Figures Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc. 5 Stocks & Commodities V. 5:2 (64-66): Trend of the trend by Gregory L. Morris Figure 5: Figures Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.

This photograph would show the composite paths to have a uniform density, Article Text Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc. 1 Stocks & Commodities V. 8:10 (377-381): Early Trend Identification by John F. Ehlers widening from the initial position. The uniform density would make the sum of the paths look like smoke plume. Further, random walk does not necessarily mean chaos. A minor variation of the drunkard's walk problem is to allow the random coin-flip decision to control the change of direction rather than the direction itself— that is, the random variable becomes momentum instead of direction.

Those with durations just a little greater than the span of the average are greatly reduced in magnitude, but the effect lessens as periodicity duration increases. Very long duration periodicities come through nearly unscathed. For this indicator you need to identify the short-term cycle for the market you are analyzing. Detrending the data as mentioned earlier will assist you in identifying market lows and finding the dominant short-term cycle. Once the cycle has been identified, select an exponential average equal to one half of the short-term cycle.

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