The emergence of numerical weather prediction by Peter Lynch

By Peter Lynch

Lewis Fry Richardson dreamt that clinical climate prediction may someday turn into a pragmatic truth. earlier than his principles may possibly undergo fruit a number of advances have been wanted: higher realizing of the dynamics of the ambience; reliable computational algorithms to combine the equations; normal observations of the loose surroundings; and robust computerized machine gear. through 1950 advances in a lot of these fronts have been adequate to allow the 1st laptop forecast to be made. Over the consequent fifty years growth in numerical climate prediction has been dramatic. climate prediction and weather modelling have now reached a excessive point of class. This publication tells the tale of Richardson's trial forecast, and the fulfilment of his dream of sensible numerical climate forecasting. It features a entire reconstruction of Richardson's forecast, and analyses intimately the reasons of his failure. this may attract all people excited by numerical climate forecasting, from researchers and graduate scholars to execs.

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The centrifugal term is combined with the true gravity to produce an ‘apparent gravity’. This force is everywhere perpendicular to the spheroid and defines a vertical direction on its surface so that the apparent gravity has no horizontal component on this surface. ✑ ✟ ✄✞✝ We can write the Newtonian gravitational potential as ✝✟✞ ✆ ✞ ✯ ✙ , where ✟ ✑ ✆ ✠ ☞★ ☛ ✆✲ ✌✍✌✍✎ m s ✒ is the standard value of gravitational acceleration. 3 We also ✯ ✡ note that the centrifugal acceleration ✞✪☛✫✌✘✢✣☛✜✌✥✤✧✦ is the gradient of the potential ✟ ✔ ✟ ✕ ✔ ✞ ✟✒ ✛ ✓ ✝✑✏ ✆ , where is the distance from the Earth’s axis.

The continuity equation takes a particularly elegant form in pressure coordinates, becoming a diagnostic equation. 9), which can be written ✁ ✏ ✁ ✏ ✔ ✱ ✑ ✏ ✔ ✏ ✑ ✱ ✔ ✂ ✁ ✄ ✁✁ ✆✝✲✴★ ☎ ☎ Using the hydrostatic equation to replace ✏ by ✁ ✁ ✒ ✁ ✒ ✔ ✱ ✑ ✒✕✔ ✔☎✄ ✑ ✁ ✒ ✁ ✄ ✂ ☛✁ ✂✁ ☎ ✒ ☎ we can write ✁ ✱ ✱ ✑ ✒✝✆ ✞ ✁ ✒ ✆✳✲✴★ ☎ ✒ ✄ ☞✄ ✄ ✆ The term in braces is just . 28) the term in square brackets is the horizontal divergence in isobaric co-ordinates. 29) The continuity equation contains no explicit time derivative; it is a diagnostic equation.

As hydrostatic balance is assumed, there is no prognostic equation for the vertical velocity. Ch. 5 is devoted to the derivation of a diagnostic equation for this quantity. ’ Ch. 6 considers the special measures which must be taken for the uppermost layer, the stratosphere, a region later described as ‘a happy hunting-ground for meteorological theorists’ (Richardson and Munday, 1926). Ch. 7 gives details of the finite difference scheme, explaining the rationale for the choice of a staggered grid.

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