Forecasting in Middle Latitudes by Herbert Riehl, J. Badner, J. E. Hovde, N. E. La Seur, L. L.

By Herbert Riehl, J. Badner, J. E. Hovde, N. E. La Seur, L. L. Means, W. C. Palmer, M. J. Schroeder, L. W. Snellman (auth.)

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15 for stages NIII, Sl. (fig. 16b) shown by an increase of the strength of the western maximum as its "head" elongates itself toward the long-wave trough. Fig. 16c shows the time of superposition of long- and short-wave troughs. The pattern is quite complicated compared to fig. 15c and the prediction of associated surface events is correspondingly more difficult. We observe velocity maxima in the ridges as before and also a separate maximum in the troughline in the south. Moderate cyclogenesis subsequent to this map time is frequent.

3) We make the long-wave forecast, check whether the previous computation is working out all right and also whether previous and current computations follow each other in a logical way. In particular, we look for possible increases and decreases of the wave number in situations that call for these developments. In stages NIII and Sill we consider the possible breakdown of one long-wave train and the establishment of another, either in high or low latitudes, depending on whether the trend is southward or northward.

Surface pressure changes result from the net mass changes above the surface. From empirical evidence we know that in the colder season in middle latitudes the sign of the mass divergence reverses at least once along the vertical, so that the surface pressure change is a small resultant of large opposing terms. We also know empirically that in the vast majority of cases the sign of the divergence in the upper layer determines the sign of the surface pressure change. If we avail ourselves of this knowledge and of the type of relation given in appendix 9; if we, moreover, assume that the vorticity field on a single isobaric surface located within the upper layer can be taken as representative of the whole upper layer: then we can immed~ately locate the regions of falling and rising pressure from our upper-air prognostic chart.

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