El Niño and the southern oscillation: multiscale variability by Henry F. Diaz, Vera Markgraf

By Henry F. Diaz, Vera Markgraf

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a recurrent characteristic of the weather in tropical areas. during this quantity prime specialists summarize details received during the last decade on varied facets of ENSO, that have resulted in marked advancements in forecasting. This quantity compares ENSO's glossy morphology and variability with its contemporary ancient and prehistoric habit. It expands and updates Diaz and Markgraf's prior quantity El Niño: old and Paleoclimatic features of the Southern Oscillation (Cambridge collage Press, 1992). Key positive aspects contain new paleoclimate files and new details that hyperlinks ENSO variability to points of human well-being.

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Extra resources for El Niño and the southern oscillation: multiscale variability and global and regional impacts

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The findings of the Folland et al. (1998) and the Allan et al. (1999) studies form the core of the following examination of ENSO relationships with decadal to secular features of the climate system. ENSO Spectral analyses of atmospheric and oceanic variables indicative of the ENSO phenomenon show significant signals at about 2 years (QB) and in a band from 3-7 years (LF component) (Lau and Sheu 1988; Rasmusson et al. 1990; Ropelewski et al. 1992; Allan et al. 1996). 7. The broad coherency of each of these components of ENSO across the three series is clearly evident.

These fluctuations in variance need further physical explanation and understanding. 8. An analysis of these bands in Allan et al. (1999) reveals annual MSLP and SST anomaly patterns and joint time series indicative of QB and LF (or what might be termed "classical" ENSO) signals respectively (Figs. 10). Across the Pacific basin, both bands provide equally strong ENSO signals, while in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans more definitive MSLP and SST anomaly patterns are found in the LF year band. 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Fig.

8 1871 -1994 Time series of Joint GMSLP2. H+GISST3 EOF 2 4 - - AmpI tude 2- ~ ^ - / 0 ^ -2 -4 ; / \ - - - i i 1880 1900 1920 1940 . i 1960 1980 Fig. 0 EOF 2 (60- to 80-year Sahelian/interhemispheric temperature contrast signal) spatial correlation fields for MSLP (top panel) and SST (middle panel) (relative to the base period 1901-90), and joint EOF 2 time series (bottom panel) in the >29-year band. 9% of the variance in EOF 2 for the >29-year band. Regions where <40% of the observations occur are masked.

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