Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life

By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Jr. Elbert W. Friday

The record explores how top to speak climate and weather info by means of proposing 5 case reviews, chosen to demonstrate more than a few time scales and concerns, from the forecasting of climate occasions, to offering seasonal outlooks, to projecting weather change.

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The high level of NWS and media attention to the potential storm, coupled with experiences with similar events in recent winters, contributed to a sense of a deterministic event rather than a probabilistic event. Uncertainty was not adequately discussed with the public in statements, forecasts, press releases, press conferences, and media presentations. • Significant competitive pressures exist for broadcast meteorologists and weathercasters, and this contributes to deterministic forecasts and statements being made by these information providers.

Lacking in the media, for the most part, were the tones of prior reporting in which both sides of the argument were given equal weight. , real climate change expected by end of the twenty-first century) rather than the uncertainties was the focus. -based scientifically-justified plan for action. ” An unexpected effect of the communication of the NAS report was a refocusing of attention on prior climate change studies that had already identified key 37 CASE STUDIES problem areas. Questions were raised about the ability of the United States to address the problem within the current framework of climate change research (disparate groups scattered among various organizations and agencies, with limited coherency or overall vision, and inadequate computer resources).

S. Congress. S. presidential election 6 months prior to the White House request. S. power plants. Following the election and the President’s subsequent reversal (in March) of his campaign decision, Drs. Hansen and Linzden (both members of the NAS committee) testified to Congress (on April 30, 2002) on this topic. • Foreign academies. Seventeen foreign academies of sciences requested that the NAS co-sign a statement supporting the Kyoto Protocol. S. ” • International policy makers and the IPCC. N.

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