Climate Change and Climate Modeling by J. David Neelin

By J. David Neelin

Presents scholars with a superior starting place in weather technological know-how, with which to appreciate international warming, common weather adaptations, and weather types. As weather types are one in all our fundamental instruments for predicting and adapting to weather swap, it is necessary we take pleasure in their strengths and obstacles. additionally secret is realizing what elements of weather technological know-how are good understood and the place quantitative uncertainties come up. This textbook will tell the longer term clients of weather versions and the decision-makers of the next day to come through offering the intensity they want, whereas requiring no history in atmospheric technological know-how and basically uncomplicated calculus and physics. built from a path that the writer teaches at UCLA, fabric has been widely class-tested and with on-line assets of color figures, Powerpoint slides, and challenge units, it is a whole package deal for college students throughout all sciences wishing to achieve an outstanding grounding in weather technological know-how.

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14 Overview of climate variability and climate science In discussing ENSO, it is often useful to discuss a variable in terms of its departure from normal climatological conditions, or anomaly. An anomaly is calculated by taking the difference between the value of a variable at a given time, such as pressure or temperature for a particular month, and subtracting the climatology of that variable. The climatology includes the normal seasonal cycle, so for instance an anomaly of summer rainfall for June, July and August 1997 would take the average of the rainfall over that period and subtract the averages of all June, July and August values over a much longer period, such as 1950–1998.

19 Data for sea level height are from the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter from the NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry. Anomalies shown are relative to the 1993–95 mean. The measurement of variations of sea level to within a few centimeters error from a satellite is a considerable technical accomplishment (Cheney et al. 1994). 20 The Cane and Zebiak coupled model (Cane and Zebiak 1985; Zebiak and Cane 1987) is an intermediate complexity model that simulates climate anomalies in the tropical Pacific basin.

Excellent observations are available for the 1997–98 event, and its spatial structure is quite typical of El Niño events. Although the magnitude is the largest of the past century, it thus provides an example of the form and evolution of the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. Here we focus on the fully developed stage of the event; we will return to the evolution in Chapter 4, once we have the modeling tools to understand it. 7 for December 1997, exhibit a large warming in the whole eastern and central part of the equatorial Pacific, by up to 5 ◦ C.

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