China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and by CMR of Xiamen University

By CMR of Xiamen University

This e-book is a quarterly forecast and research file at the chinese language economic climate. it truly is released two times a 12 months and provides ongoing outcome from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a study venture on the heart for Macroeconomic learn (CMR) at Xiamen college. in response to the CQMM version, the study staff forecast significant macroeconomic signs for the subsequent eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP development, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas exchange. even as it makes a speciality of simulation of present macroeconomic regulations in China. as well as assisting readers comprehend China’s monetary development and coverage consultant, this e-book has 3 major objectives: to assist readers comprehend China’s fiscal functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic symptoms for the subsequent eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

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Extra info for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2014

Sample text

Therefore, when substituted into the model, we need split the annual drop of economic growth into quarterly change. approach is: we first calculate the annual change of GDP after growth reduction, and then spilt the new annual economic data into new quarterly economic data based on the actual share of each quarter. 0 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 actual baseline scenario Fig. 3 percentage points compared to the actual growth rate. 21 trillion CNY respectively. The cumulative change in each quarter of M2 growth rate is shown in Fig.

13 % over the previous year. 08 % in 2015. 12 % in 2015. 99 % in the fourth quarter. However, there will be a big fluctuation in the growth of the residential consumption in 2015. 14 % in the fourth quarter. 5 6 Calculated at the current price. Calculated at the current price. 12 Fig. 8 Growth rate of consumption (year-on-year basis) (Note: “CON_D_C” denotes the growth rate of residents’ consumption and “RETAIL” denotes the growth rate of retail sales of total consumer goods at current price) The growth in total retail sales of social consumer goods7 will increase gradually in the second half of 2014.

But manufacturing industries are experiencing excess production capacity and real estate sector are with increasing pressure of inventory. Therefore, the private capital is difficult to find good investment opportunities, and the private investment will slump. 7 8 Calculated at the current price. Calculated at the current price. 2 Forecasts of China’s Major Macroeconomic Indicators for 2014–2015 27 On one hand, the purpose of micro-stimulus policy is “to achieve a great with doing little” or “use a small financial fund to simulate a lot of investment of the market players (excluding governments)”.

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